Burning Questions
Fellowship Award Winners

Divya Narain

Location: India
Primary academic field: Development finance
Award category: PhD Holder

Guidance Memo

• Title: Climate course correction: Preventing greenhouse gas emission (GHG) lock-in from development finance driven industrialization of animal agriculture in low-income countries
• How to cite: Climate course correction: Preventing greenhouse gas emission (GHG) lock-in from development finance driven industrialization of animal agriculture in low-income countries. Tiny Beam Fund, September 23, 2025. https://doi.org/10.15868/socialsector.51917
• What We Learned From It:
  • Animal agriculture - now predominantly industrialized - is a major driver of climate change. Without significant reductions in livestock-related emissions (especially methane), Paris Climate Agreement targets cannot be met, even if fossil fuel emissions are eliminated.
  • Investments in industrial animal agriculture entrench high-emission infrastructure, behaviors, and institutions that are difficult to shift away from. This resulting ‘GHG lock-in’ constrains the transition to lower-emission alternatives, jeopardizing global climate goals.
  • Despite their commitments to align with the Paris Climate Agreement, multilateral development banks (MDBs) are funding industrial livestock projects in low-income countries (LICs) - concentrated mostly in sub-Saharan Africa - locking them into high-emissions production and consumption trajectories.
  • Between 2018 and 2024, MDBs - including the World Bank, African Development Bank (AfDB), and International Finance Corporation (IFC) - funded 55 livestock projects in LICs, of which 22 involved industrialization and 10 were ‘exclusive livestock sector’ projects.
  • MDBs have poured more than US$1 billion into projects that trigger industrialization induced GHG lock-in in LICs. Of this, US$673 million has been directed to ‘exclusive livestock-sector’ projects. MDB funding for industrialization of animal agriculture in LICs (US$1 billion) now nearly matches the amount allocated to strengthening traditional pastoral systems, which have long been the predominant form of livestock production in the sub-Saharan Africa region (US$1.8 billion).
  • MDBs are triggering industrialization-induced GHG lock-in in LICs primarily by financing vertical integration of value chains, construction of long-lived infrastructure, and intensification of production. GHG lock-in in LIC's livestock sector is not inevitable. But course correction must happen now. MDBs must halt the financing of industrial animal agriculture and instead channel investments toward climate-smart alternatives.

Links

• Read the Guidance Memo
• Read the Annotated Bibliography

Some of the Things We Really Liked when We Read the Application

• We think multilateral development banks' role in promoting industrialization of animal agriculture in low-income countries is very important but rarely discussed. We particularly like the application's point that such industrialization will lock these countries into high greenhouse gas emission trajectories, making it hard for them to meet Paris climate agreement targets. (The application explains that lock-ins are due to "transition inertia". In the livestock sector, investments and policies trigger changes in infrastructure, institutions, equipment, processes, technologies, and behavior in the supply chain that are all geared toward higher levels of production. The high capital costs incurred as well as the entrenchment in the "culture" along the supply chain make transition away from it very hard even when it is technically feasible and economically viable alternatives exist.)
• The application also mentions exploration into how financial flows from MDBs can be redirected to the production of food that is low-emission and climate-smart.
• It weaves together several issues to deliver an compelling argument that is rarely heard. Its message is essentially: "Don't finance livestock industrialization in low-income countries because that will cause lock-ins into paths of high emissions; finance low-emission alternatives instead before it is too late".